Sometimes during an election campaign the numbers of economy and deficit are thrown around as absolutes or even defining figures of what is really happening in our country. What isn't reported or shown is just how difficult it is to define these numbers and just how they can fluctuate so much over the course of a week you would need the skill of a stock market floor walker to keep pace. As an example this link will show you the nightmare that is GDP.
Just looking att he complexity of how this is calculated you can be assured that the simple numbers either side of an election party can create their own variations on what the actual number will be. I liken GDP to statistics, yes you have all the numbers in based on carefully formulated questions, but depending on what order you put those questions when writing your report will influence and dictate what kind of answer you will get, and even from the same data point you will get several conflicting answers. The most troubling thing is they are all correct in their own way. In this link you will see how we sit after the dramatic low during the heat of the GFC and it cannot be argued that we are worse off, so simply observationary evceluations shows Australia is moving forward (to use a phrase)from what were some pretty dire times.
Like all countries we had to go into debt, there isn't a country in the world that didn't. Australia had some surplus but it was nowhere near enough to step in front of the recession train, so more had to be borrowed but what has been borrowed, unlike say the USA or UK, can be paid back easier because of recovery in GDP - note some countries have had little or no recovery at this stage. To fully understand the numbers of the GDP and how it works you would need to be an economist with exceeding high credentials, and one Nobel Prize recipient economist has already stated the wise moves of the ALP in its actions in terms of the GFC. Yes, debt was taken on, and it had to be taken on and in a wise move the debt was taken on in areas that directly benefitted Australians, unlike the USA debt that went straight to banks, who immediately paid bonuses to executives on recieving of the stimulus. This was why Australia stimulus spending worked and the USA's failed.
Though we are no clearer with the GDP, which can include some government spending from memory, the important thing to note is where we are today as compared to last year and the year before. We want to keep this growth in progress and not do anything to halt or reverse the current upward motion. A lot rests on manufacturing and exports and getting fair payment for those exports.
It is true I believe Labor is in a better position to manage this future for at least another term, and it is my guestimation the budget will reach surplus comfortably - that may happen naturally because of how the system seems to work, but if the Liberals want to rush it to surplus faster, then we will have problems - not financial problems but more social problems, schools and health were big recipients of the stimulus and so to were environmental initiantives, all areas that will recieve some kind of budgetary cut under a different government.
GDP will rise steadily by estimates, but it is always wise to stick with a steady path otherwise to idea of going for a big money grab back could impact society.
My thoughts, anyway.
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